[h=1]Fantasy Forecaster: Week 23[/h][h=3]Which teams are motivated to play their stars with playoff spots up for grabs?[/h]By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com
On tap: Three weeks remain in the 2013 regular season, and with that, playoff races come into play when making fantasy baseball lineup decisions. Consider the National League East and West and American League Central races: The Atlanta Braves, up 13 games in the NL East on the morning of Sept. 8, have a magic number (combination of their wins and their next-closest opponent's losses needed to clinch that playoff spot) of nine. The Los Angeles Dodgers, up 11 games in the NL West, have a magic number of 10. And the Detroit Tigers, up 5 1/2 games in the AL Central on the morning of Sept. 5, have a magic number of 16.
All three teams might increasingly rest regulars, plus shuffle and/or shorten their starters' remaining assignments, knowing that the playoffs are a virtual guarantee. This is why the Braves pushed Julio Teheran back in their rotation to Tuesday; he is on pace for 185 1/3 regular-season innings, or 48 innings more than he amassed in 2012, or 21 more than in any other previous professional season (164 1/3 in 2011). It is why the Tigers face a difficult decision on how much to play Miguel Cabrera, who has missed 11 games combined since July 3 with back, hip and abdominal injuries, and might be able to use additional rest. And it is why the Dodgers skipped Hyun-Jin Ryu's Sept. 6 start as he deals with a back injury, plus why they might take it easy on outfielders Carl Crawford, Matt Kemp and Yasiel Puig, all of whom either have or are currently dealing with ailments, going forward.
Fantasy owners must brace for the unexpected at this time of year, and it's why the best sources of production are often the teams with the greatest motivation. Looking at the standings and the week's schedule, here are three top Week 23 candidates:
• New York Yankees (@BAL-4, @BOS-3): They have won 18 of their past 29 games, have outscored their opponents by 17 runs total during that span, remain within 2 1/2 games of an AL wild-card spot and play nothing but teams that either are in or within range of a playoff spot.
• Oakland Athletics (@MIN-3, @TEX-3): They entered play on Sept. 8 1 1/2 games ahead of the Texas Rangers, whom they'll play during the weekend, and seven games up on the Yankees and the rest of their wild-card competition.
• Cincinnati Reds (CHC-3, @MIL-3): Their NL wild-card status isn't in serious jeopardy -- they have an eight-game lead on the competition -- but they still have a realistic shot of taking the division title and with it avoiding the wild card play-in game. This is soft competition for the Reds to make up ground.
That's not to say these are the only three teams with motivation. The Baltimore Orioles (NYY-4, @TOR-3), Cleveland Indians (KC-3, @CWS-4), Kansas City Royals (@CLE-3, @DET-3), Tampa Bay Rays (BOS-3, @MIN-3), Texas Rangers (PIT-3, OAK-3), Pittsburgh Pirates (@TEX-3, CHC-4) and St. Louis Cardinals (MIL-3, SEA-3) are also fighting for playoff spots and/or positioning. When making close-in-player-valuation lineup decisions, consider the importance of their teams' games in addition to either volume or quality of their matchups.
Quick click by section, if you're seeking advice in a specific area:
ESPN lineup deadlines | Interleague impact | Projected starting pitchers
Pitching scuttlebutt | Week 23 pitcher rankings | Pitching advantages
Hitting ratings | Hitting advantages
[h=3]ESPN leagues: Lineup deadlines[/h]
Later lineup deadlines return this week, as Monday's first games (and the opening games of fantasy's Week 23) have a 7:05 p.m. ET start time: New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles and Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Indians are the first two. Fantasy owners in leagues with daily transactions will also have additional time to set their lineups; games don't begin until 7:05 p.m. ET that day either.
This is the second and final week of Round 1 of the playoffs in ESPN standard leagues. The winners this week will advance to the finals, which will be played during the two-week span of fantasy's Weeks 24-25. The playoff structure and rules for our standard leagues can be seen right here.
[h=3]Interleague impact[/h]
This week's interleague series:
• Pittsburgh Pirates at Texas Rangers (3 games, Monday-Wednesday)
• Seattle Mariners at St. Louis Cardinals (3 games, Friday-Sunday)
Justin Morneau has played every inning of all four Pirates games at first base since his acquisition, rendering former platoon mates Garrett Jones and Gaby Sanchez bench bats. Gaining the designated hitter during their trip to Texas' Rangers Ballpark gives Jones and Sanchez a place to play again; Sanchez will probably start Monday's game against left-hander Martin Perez, with Jones starting Tuesday and Wednesday against right-handers Yu Darvish and Matt Garza. NL-only owners might squeeze some value out of either player with the small increase in plate appearances.
Losing the DH, meanwhile, has always been a problem for the Mariners, who have a bevy of natural DH candidates on their roster. The trade of Michael Morse decreased that list by one, but Kendrys Morales and Justin Smoak, both of whom have struggled of late, must now fight for PAs at first base, while Raul Ibanez must move to left field to steal PAs from Dustin Ackley and/or Abraham Almonte. As all three Cardinals scheduled starters are right-handed, Ibanez probably won't lose much, if any playing time, but Smoak's owners might want to brace for him sitting 2-3 games.
[h=3]Projected starting pitchers[/h]
The chart below lists each of the 30 MLB teams' schedules and projected starting pitchers, and provides a matchup rating for each day's starter. Pitchers scheduled to start at least twice this week are in gold/beige boxes.
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[h=3]Pitching scuttlebutt[/h]
• Just as they did last September, the Baltimore Orioles are announcing their starters on a day-by-day basis, meaning what's listed above is a projection, assuming Chris Tillman returns to their rotation on Monday in the place of the demoted Zach Britton. Britton and Jason Hammel are candidates to make spot starts and/or bump any of the above five to the bullpen at any time.
• Clay Buchholz (shoulder), who threw 3 2/3 innings and 71 pitches in a rehabilitation start for Triple-A Pawtucket on Sept. 5, is scheduled to return to the Boston Red Sox rotation Tuesday. It is unclear whether the team will go with six starters or bump someone, Ryan Dempster and Felix Doubront the most obvious candidates. In the latter case, Buchholz would be a two-start pitcher.
• The Chicago White Sox are currently using a six-man rotation, with no hint of reverting to five for the week.
• Justin Masterson (oblique) was scheduled to miss at least one start -- that'd have come Sept. 8 -- and it's unclear whether he'll be ready to rejoin the Cleveland Indians' rotation this week.
• With the Seattle Mariners pushing back Felix Hernandez's (back) next start to Wednesday, it's highly likely they'll use a six-man rotation again this week.
• The Texas Rangers haven't yet announced a starter for Sept. 8, with Travis Blackley and Nick Tepesch the leading candidates, and that spot comes up again on Saturday. The team also has the option of skipping that spot thanks to Thursday's off day, and that's projected above because it's likely the team would prefer a Derek Holland-Martin Perez-Yu Darvish trio for that key weekend series against Oakland.
• The Atlanta Braves, in an attempt to keep his innings down, pushed Julio Teheran's next start back to Tuesday. It's unclear whether they'll do so again with his following start on Sunday, but with the team up 14 games in the division, Kameron Loe or another pitcher could always make an unannounced spot start.
• Scott Baker (Tommy John surgery) is expected to rejoin the Chicago Cubs' rotation on Sept. 8, but it is unclear whether he's replacing someone or the team is going to six starters. Jake Arrieta or Chris Rusin could be bumped, or the struggling Jeff Samardzija could be shut down early, but for now it's smartest to expect a six-man rotation for the coming week.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers scratched Hyun-Jin Ryu (back) from his scheduled Sept. 6 start, and are likely to use him on either Tuesday or Wednesday. If he pitches Wednesday, Chris Capuano would probably get two starts (Tuesday-Sunday).
• The Miami Marlins pushed Jose Fernandez's most recent start back to Sept. 6, and it's possible that he'll make only one more start this season after that. With an extra game on the schedule, the team will need six starters anyway; what's projected above seems like a fairly likely scenario.
• The Milwaukee Brewers have made no announcements regarding their rotation beyond Sept. 8, though manager Ron Roenicke told the team's official website that he has a rough outline of it (he didn't reveal it). What's listed above is entirely a projection, but Tyler Thornburg could also factor into their plans.
• With a doubleheader Friday, the New York Mets will need a sixth/spot starter this week.
[h=3]Tristan's Week 23 pitcher rankings: Top 75[/h]
1. Max Scherzer (DET) -- Mon-@CWS (Sale), Sun-KC (Santana)
2. Clayton Kershaw (LAD) -- Fri-SF (Bumgarner)
3. Zack Greinke (LAD) -- Thu-SF (Cain)
4. Chris Sale (CWS) -- Mon-DET (Scherzer), Sun-CLE (McAllister)
5. Stephen Strasburg (WSH) -- Fri-PHI (Kendrick)
6. Jarrod Parker (OAK) -- Tue-@MIN (Hendriks), Sun-@TEX (Perez)
7. Yu Darvish (TEX) -- Tue-PIT (Liriano)
8. Homer Bailey (CIN) -- Sat-@MIL (Gallardo)
9. Mat Latos (CIN) -- Fri-@MIL (Hellweg)
10. Jered Weaver (LAA) -- Mon-@MIN (Hernandez), Sat-@HOU (Oberholtzer)
11. Jose Fernandez (MIA) -- Thu-ATL (Wood)
12. Cole Hamels (PHI) -- Sat-@WSH (Gonzalez)
13. Hyun-Jin Ryu (LAD) -- Tue-ARI (Cahill), Sun-SF (Vogelsong)
14. Ricky Nolasco (LAD) -- Mon-ARI (Delgado), Sat-SF (Lincecum)
15. Anibal Sanchez (DET) -- Wed-@CWS (Quintana)
16. Cliff Lee (PHI) -- Thu-SD (Smith)
17. Kris Medlen (ATL) -- Mon-@MIA (Alvarez), Sat-SD (Kennedy)
18. Justin Verlander (DET) -- Fri-KC (Duffy)
19. Julio Teheran (ATL) -- Tue-@MIA (Koehler), Sun-SD (Cashner)
20. James Shields (KC) -- Wed-@CLE (Kazmir)
21. Gio Gonzalez (WSH) -- Mon-@NYM (Torres), Sat-PHI (Hamels)
22. Madison Bumgarner (SF) -- Fri-@LAD (Kershaw)
23. Jordan Zimmermann (WSH) -- Tue-@NYM (Gee), Sun-PHI (Martin)
24. Jake Peavy (BOS) -- Thu-@TB (Cobb)
25. Felix Hernandez (SEA) -- Wed-HOU (Peacock)
26. Francisco Liriano (PIT) -- Tue-@TEX (Darvish), Sun-CHC (Wood)
27. David Price (TB) -- Wed-BOS (Dempster)
28. Adam Wainwright (STL) -- Fri-SEA (Iwakuma)
29. Travis Wood (CHC) -- Mon-@CIN (Arroyo), Sun-@PIT (Liriano)
30. Jon Lester (BOS) -- Sun-NYY (Nova)
31. Jhoulys Chacin (COL) -- Mon-@SF (Lincecum), Sun-@ARI (Delgado)
32. Jonathon Niese (NYM) -- Thu-WSH (Roark)
33. Mike Minor (ATL) -- Wed-@MIA (Flynn)
34. Chris Tillman (BAL) -- Mon-NYY (Sabathia), Sat-@TOR (Rogers)
35. Dillon Gee (NYM) -- Tue-WSH (Zimmermann), Sun-MIA (Koehler)
36. Sonny Gray (OAK) -- Wed-@MIN (Pelfrey)
37. Zack Wheeler (NYM) -- Wed-WSH (Haren)
38. Matt Garza (TEX) -- Wed-PIT (Burnett)
39. A.J. Burnett (PIT) -- Wed-@TEX (Garza)
40. Hisashi Iwakuma (SEA) -- Fri-@STL (Wainwright)
41. Tony Cingrani (CIN) -- Tue-CHC (Jackson)
42. Shelby Miller (STL) -- Tue-MIL (Estrada), Sun-SEA (Ramirez)
43. John Lackey (BOS) -- Sat-NYY (Sabathia)
44. Alex Cobb (TB) -- Thu-BOS (Peavy)
45. Ubaldo Jimenez (CLE) -- Mon-KC (Santana), Sat-@CWS (Rienzo)
46. Matt Cain (SF) -- Thu-@LAD (Greinke)
47. Ivan Nova (NYY) -- Tue-@BAL (Gonzalez), Sun-@BOS (Lester)
48. Randall Delgado (ARI) -- Mon-@LAD (Nolasco), Sun-COL (Chacin)
49. Yovani Gallardo (MIL) -- Sat-CIN (Bailey)
50. Matt Moore (TB) -- Sat-@MIN (Hernandez)
51. Martin Perez (TEX) -- Mon-PIT (Cole), Sun-OAK (Parker)
52. Michael Wacha (STL) -- Sat-SEA (Paxton)
53. Derek Holland (TEX) -- Fri-OAK (Straily)
54. Patrick Corbin (ARI) -- Wed-@LAD (Capuano)
55. Andrew Cashner (SD) -- Tue-@PHI (Martin), Sun-@ATL (Teheran)
56. Gerrit Cole (PIT) -- Mon-@TEX (Perez), Sat-CHC (Baker)
57. Alex Wood (ATL) -- Thu-@MIA (Fernandez)
58. R.A. Dickey (TOR) -- Thu-LAA (Richards)
59. Mark Buehrle (TOR) -- Wed-LAA (Wilson)
60. C.J. Wilson (LAA) -- Wed-@TOR (Buehrle)
61. Chris Archer (TB) -- Fri-@MIN (Albers)
62. Danny Salazar (CLE) -- Fri-@CWS (Santiago)
63. Doug Fister (DET) -- Sat-KC (Chen)
64. Bronson Arroyo (CIN) -- Mon-CHC (Wood), Sun-@MIL (Estrada)
65. Andy Pettitte (NYY) -- Wed-@BAL (Feldman)
66. Carlos Torres (NYM) -- Mon-WSH (Gonzalez), Sat-MIA, Gm. 1 (Turner)
67. Charlie Morton (PIT) -- Fri-CHC (Arrieta)
68. Tim Lincecum (SF) -- Mon-COL (Chacin), Sat-@LAD (Nolasco)
69. Ryan Vogelsong (SF) -- Tue-COL (De La Rosa), Sun-@LAD (Ryu)
70. Taijuan Walker (SEA) -- Mon-HOU (Cosart)
71. Hiroki Kuroda (NYY) -- Fri-@BOS (Doubront)
72. Dan Haren (WSH) -- Wed-@NYM (Wheeler)
73. Paul Maholm (ATL) -- Fri-SD (Ross)
74. Marco Estrada (MIL) -- Tue-@STL (Miller), Sun-CIN (Arroyo)
75. A.J. Griffin (OAK) -- Thu-@MIN (Correia)
Two-start options for AL-/NL-only leagues:
Henderson Alvarez (MIA) -- Mon-ATL (Medlen), Sat-@NYM, Gm. 2 (TBD)
Zach McAllister (CLE) -- Tue-KC (Guthrie), Sun-@CWS (Sale)
CC Sabathia (NYY) -- Mon-@BAL (Tillman), Sat-@BOS (Lackey)
Ervin Santana (KC) -- Mon-@CLE (Jimenez), Sun-@DET (Scherzer)
Jerome Williams (LAA) -- Tue-@TOR (Redmond), Sun-@HOU (Clemens)
No-thank-yous, among two-start pitchers:
Miguel Gonzalez (BAL) -- Tue-NYY (Nova), Sun-@TOR (Redmond)
Jeremy Hellickson (TB) -- Tue-BOS (Buchholz), Sun-@MIN (Hendriks)
Liam Hendriks (MIN) -- Tue-OAK (Parker), Sun-TB (Hellickson)
Pedro Hernandez (MIN) -- Mon-LAA (Weaver), Sat-TB (Moore)
Tom Koehler (MIA) -- Tue-ATL (Teheran), Sun-@NYM (Gee)
Ethan Martin (PHI) -- Tue-SD (Cashner), Sun-@WSH (Zimmermann)
Todd Redmond (TOR) -- Tue-LAA (Williams), Sun-BAL (Gonzalez)
[h=3]Pitching advantages[/h]
• We're probably about to witness first-year fantasy sensation and probable National League Rookie of the Year Jose Fernandez's final start of 2013, as all indications are that the Miami Marlins plan to cap him at 170 innings pitched. He had 158 2/3 innings entering his Sept. 6 turn -- that his probable next-to-last assignment -- and it makes a lot of scheduling sense for them to pitch him on either Wednesday or Thursday, the final games of their seven-game home stand before a 11-game road trip. Fernandez has 10 quality starts, a 1.58 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 31.6 percent strikeout rate (that going by percentage of total batters faced) in 11 starts since July 1, and he tossed six innings of two-run, three-hit, eight-K baseball against the Atlanta Braves on Aug. 30. Keep him in there, then prepare to cut him in all redraft leagues.
• The New York Mets, who will in all likelihood have been eliminated from NL East contention by week's start, have quite a set of pitching matchups in Week 23. They play eight games, tied with the Miami Marlins for the most in the majors, all at Citi Field, where they have a 3.53 ERA and 1.24 WHIP as a team (compared to 4.02 and 1.35 on the road). As you'll see among the "Streamer's Delight" picks below, two-start pitcher Dillon Gee, available in 83.9 percent of ESPN leagues, warrants a pickup in any format for the week. But every member of the Mets' rotation is available in a significant percentage of ESPN leagues -- Zack Wheeler's 74.1 percent ownership is tops among their current starting five -- and that means streaming opportunities. Jonathon Niese, Thursday's starter against the Washington Nationals, might be the standout. After all, the Nationals have the majors' fourth-worst wOBA (weighted on-base average) against left-handed pitchers this season (.289).
• At least on the pitching side, the Cleveland Indians' matchups suit them well in their quest to fight back into either the AL Central or wild-card races. The opposing Kansas City Royals (18th, .309) and Chicago White Sox (25th, .298) rank among the majors' bottom half in wOBA since the All-Star break, and all five current Indians starters -- assuming that Justin Masterson (owned in 83.4 percent of ESPN leagues) doesn't pitch this week -- remain available in more than 75 percent of leagues. Two-start pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez (23.5 percent owned) is the intriguing play of the bunch. He's riding a streak of three consecutive quality starts, two of which were 10-strikeout efforts, and during those games he experienced a marked increase in fastball velocity, averaging 92.9 mph with it compared to 91.3 during his first 24 starts of the season.
• Here are this week's Streamer's Delight picks -- players need to be available in at least 75 percent of ESPN leagues as of our publishing time (Fridays):
1. Dillon Gee (MIA, Sunday): He has a 65.8 quality start percentage, 3.16 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 40 career games at Citi Field, and the Miami Marlins have the majors' worst wOBA both since the All-Star break (.274) and for the season (.276).
2. Dillon Gee (WSH, Tuesday): Oh, and Gee is 6-for-11 in quality starts with a 2.80 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in his career against the Washington Nationals.
3. Randall Delgado (COL, Sunday): He's 7-for-9 in quality starts with a 3.36 ERA and 1.07 WHIP at home this season, and the Colorado Rockies' .296 wOBA and 3.45 runs-per-game average on the road both rank among the majors' 10 worst.
4. Michael Wacha (SEA, Saturday): Hope he leans on his changeup (.210 wOBA allowed, 19 of his 40 K's), because the Seattle Mariners have the majors' second-worst wOBA (.251) and fourth-highest K rate (24.6 percent) against that pitch.
5. Taijuan Walker (HOU, Monday): He'll probably be on a pitch count, but you can't ask a more favorable matchup for K's than the Houston Astros.
[h=3]Hitting ratings[/h]
The chart below lists each of the 30 teams' total number of scheduled games, home games and games versus right- and left-handed pitchers, and provides a matchup rating for the week's games in terms of overall offense, offense for left- and right-handed hitters and base stealing. Matchup ratings for each individual game are listed under the corresponding date.
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[h=3]Hitting advantages[/h]
• Here are this week's "volume plays" -- defined as the teams that play the most home games, or games against left- or right-handed starters:
Home games: New York Mets 8, Chicago White Sox 7, Minnesota Twins 7, Los Angeles Dodgers 7
Versus LH: Baltimore Orioles 4, Detroit Tigers 4, Los Angeles Angels 4
Versus RH: Chicago White Sox 7, New York Mets 7, Minnesota Twins 6, Seattle Mariners 6, Atlanta Braves 6, Milwaukee Brewers 6
• Consider this a "last gasp" kind of week for Los Angeles Angels hitters, who will play 10 of their final 13 games of the season against hungry, motivated Oakland Athletics and Texas Rangers pitchers in the two weeks following this. Though this team has a wOBA 15 points higher against right-handed pitchers (.326) than left-handers (.311), all that means is that this is a team that does more scraping lineups together against lefties than rolls out many fantasy studs. That's a plus for those seeking fill-ins, as Erick Aybar (owned in 77.8 percent of ESPN leagues), Peter Bourjos (2.3 percent), Grant Green (0.2), Hank Conger (0.1) and Luis Jimenez (0.0) are all right-handed (or switch-hitting) hitters who are widely available.
Green stands out in particular, as he has started 24 of the team's past 28 games at second base, batting .291 with a .358 on-base percentage during that span.
• Two Cincinnati Reds hitters remain available in a significant number of ESPN leagues and should benefit from their hitting-friendly set of matchups this week: Todd Frazier (owned in 54.9 percent) and Ryan Ludwick (8.6 percent).
Frazier, who hit two home runs on Sept. 5, is a .276 hitter with a .553 slugging percentage, five home runs and 15 RBIs in his past 20 games. Ludwick, meanwhile, is a .321/.345/.482 hitter in his past 17 contests.
On tap: Three weeks remain in the 2013 regular season, and with that, playoff races come into play when making fantasy baseball lineup decisions. Consider the National League East and West and American League Central races: The Atlanta Braves, up 13 games in the NL East on the morning of Sept. 8, have a magic number (combination of their wins and their next-closest opponent's losses needed to clinch that playoff spot) of nine. The Los Angeles Dodgers, up 11 games in the NL West, have a magic number of 10. And the Detroit Tigers, up 5 1/2 games in the AL Central on the morning of Sept. 5, have a magic number of 16.
All three teams might increasingly rest regulars, plus shuffle and/or shorten their starters' remaining assignments, knowing that the playoffs are a virtual guarantee. This is why the Braves pushed Julio Teheran back in their rotation to Tuesday; he is on pace for 185 1/3 regular-season innings, or 48 innings more than he amassed in 2012, or 21 more than in any other previous professional season (164 1/3 in 2011). It is why the Tigers face a difficult decision on how much to play Miguel Cabrera, who has missed 11 games combined since July 3 with back, hip and abdominal injuries, and might be able to use additional rest. And it is why the Dodgers skipped Hyun-Jin Ryu's Sept. 6 start as he deals with a back injury, plus why they might take it easy on outfielders Carl Crawford, Matt Kemp and Yasiel Puig, all of whom either have or are currently dealing with ailments, going forward.
Fantasy owners must brace for the unexpected at this time of year, and it's why the best sources of production are often the teams with the greatest motivation. Looking at the standings and the week's schedule, here are three top Week 23 candidates:
• New York Yankees (@BAL-4, @BOS-3): They have won 18 of their past 29 games, have outscored their opponents by 17 runs total during that span, remain within 2 1/2 games of an AL wild-card spot and play nothing but teams that either are in or within range of a playoff spot.
• Oakland Athletics (@MIN-3, @TEX-3): They entered play on Sept. 8 1 1/2 games ahead of the Texas Rangers, whom they'll play during the weekend, and seven games up on the Yankees and the rest of their wild-card competition.
• Cincinnati Reds (CHC-3, @MIL-3): Their NL wild-card status isn't in serious jeopardy -- they have an eight-game lead on the competition -- but they still have a realistic shot of taking the division title and with it avoiding the wild card play-in game. This is soft competition for the Reds to make up ground.
That's not to say these are the only three teams with motivation. The Baltimore Orioles (NYY-4, @TOR-3), Cleveland Indians (KC-3, @CWS-4), Kansas City Royals (@CLE-3, @DET-3), Tampa Bay Rays (BOS-3, @MIN-3), Texas Rangers (PIT-3, OAK-3), Pittsburgh Pirates (@TEX-3, CHC-4) and St. Louis Cardinals (MIL-3, SEA-3) are also fighting for playoff spots and/or positioning. When making close-in-player-valuation lineup decisions, consider the importance of their teams' games in addition to either volume or quality of their matchups.
Quick click by section, if you're seeking advice in a specific area:
ESPN lineup deadlines | Interleague impact | Projected starting pitchers
Pitching scuttlebutt | Week 23 pitcher rankings | Pitching advantages
Hitting ratings | Hitting advantages
[h=3]ESPN leagues: Lineup deadlines[/h]
Later lineup deadlines return this week, as Monday's first games (and the opening games of fantasy's Week 23) have a 7:05 p.m. ET start time: New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles and Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Indians are the first two. Fantasy owners in leagues with daily transactions will also have additional time to set their lineups; games don't begin until 7:05 p.m. ET that day either.
This is the second and final week of Round 1 of the playoffs in ESPN standard leagues. The winners this week will advance to the finals, which will be played during the two-week span of fantasy's Weeks 24-25. The playoff structure and rules for our standard leagues can be seen right here.
[h=3]Interleague impact[/h]
This week's interleague series:
• Pittsburgh Pirates at Texas Rangers (3 games, Monday-Wednesday)
• Seattle Mariners at St. Louis Cardinals (3 games, Friday-Sunday)
Justin Morneau has played every inning of all four Pirates games at first base since his acquisition, rendering former platoon mates Garrett Jones and Gaby Sanchez bench bats. Gaining the designated hitter during their trip to Texas' Rangers Ballpark gives Jones and Sanchez a place to play again; Sanchez will probably start Monday's game against left-hander Martin Perez, with Jones starting Tuesday and Wednesday against right-handers Yu Darvish and Matt Garza. NL-only owners might squeeze some value out of either player with the small increase in plate appearances.
Losing the DH, meanwhile, has always been a problem for the Mariners, who have a bevy of natural DH candidates on their roster. The trade of Michael Morse decreased that list by one, but Kendrys Morales and Justin Smoak, both of whom have struggled of late, must now fight for PAs at first base, while Raul Ibanez must move to left field to steal PAs from Dustin Ackley and/or Abraham Almonte. As all three Cardinals scheduled starters are right-handed, Ibanez probably won't lose much, if any playing time, but Smoak's owners might want to brace for him sitting 2-3 games.
[h=3]Projected starting pitchers[/h]
The chart below lists each of the 30 MLB teams' schedules and projected starting pitchers, and provides a matchup rating for each day's starter. Pitchers scheduled to start at least twice this week are in gold/beige boxes.
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| <CENTER>Team</CENTER> | <CENTER>Mon 9/9</CENTER> | <CENTER>Tue 9/10</CENTER> | <CENTER>Wed 9/11</CENTER> | <CENTER>Thu 9/12</CENTER> | <CENTER>Fri 9/13</CENTER> | <CENTER>Sat 9/14</CENTER> | <CENTER>Sun 9/15</CENTER> |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY Tillman (RHP) P: 7 | NYY Gonzalez (RHP) P: 6 | NYY Feldman (RHP) P: 7 | NYY Chen (LHP) P: 3 | @TOR Norris (RHP) P: 4 | @TOR Tillman (RHP) P: 7 | @TOR Gonzalez (RHP) P: 5 |
| @TB Buchholz (RHP) P: 6 | @TB Dempster (RHP) P: 3 | @TB Peavy (RHP) P: 9 | NYY Doubront (LHP) P: 6 | NYY Lackey (RHP) P: 7 | NYY Lester (LHP) P: 8 | |
| DET Sale (LHP) P: 6 | DET Johnson (RHP) P: 1 | DET Quintana (LHP) P: 4 | CLE Danks (LHP) P: 5 | CLE Santiago (LHP) P: 5 | CLE Rienzo (RHP) P: 2 | CLE Sale (LHP) P: 8 |
| KC Jimenez (RHP) P: 9 | KC McAllister (RHP) P: 6 | KC Kazmir (LHP) P: 5 | @CWS Kluber (RHP) P: 7 | @CWS Salazar (RHP) P: 8 | @CWS Jimenez (RHP) P: 8 | @CWS McAllister (RHP) P: 6 |
| @CWS Scherzer (RHP) P: 10 | @CWS Porcello (RHP) P: 4 | @CWS Sanchez (RHP) P: 10 | KC Verlander (RHP) P: 8 | KC Fister (RHP) P: 7 | KC Scherzer (RHP) P: 10 | |
| @SEA Cosart (RHP) P: 7 | @SEA Lyles (RHP) P: 6 | @SEA Peacock (RHP) P: 7 | LAA Keuchel (LHP) P: 4 | LAA Obrholtzr (LHP) P: 6 | LAA Clemens (RHP) P: 1 | |
| @CLE Santana (RHP) P: 6 | @CLE Guthrie (RHP) P: 4 | @CLE Shields (RHP) P: 10 | @DET Duffy (LHP) P: 6 | @DET Chen (LHP) P: 3 | @DET Santana (RHP) P: 4 | |
| @MIN Weaver (RHP) P: 9 | @TOR Williams (RHP) P: 5 | @TOR Wilson (LHP) P: 7 | @TOR Richards (RHP) P: 6 | @HOU Vargas (LHP) P: 5 | @HOU Weaver (RHP) P: 9 | @HOU Williams (RHP) P: 6 |
| LAA Hernandez (LHP) P: 3 | OAK Hendriks (RHP) P: 1 | OAK Pelfrey (RHP) P: 6 | OAK Correia (RHP) P: 4 | TB Albers (LHP) P: 4 | TB Hernandez (LHP) P: 3 | TB Hendriks (RHP) P: 1 |
| @BAL Sabathia (LHP) P: 4 | @BAL Nova (RHP) P: 6 | @BAL Pettitte (LHP) P: 5 | @BAL Huff (LHP) P: 4 | @BOS Kuroda (RHP) P: 2 | @BOS Sabathia (LHP) P: 3 | @BOS Nova (RHP) P: 5 |
| @MIN Parker (RHP) P: 10 | @MIN Gray (RHP) P: 10 | @MIN Griffin (RHP) P: 6 | @TEX Straily (RHP) P: 3 | @TEX Colon (RHP) P: 6 | @TEX Parker (RHP) P: 8 | |
| HOU Walker (RHP) P: 7 | HOU Saunders (LHP) P: 2 | HOU Hernandez (RHP) P: 8 | @STL Iwakuma (RHP) P: 9 | @STL Paxton (LHP) P: 6 | @STL Ramirez (RHP) P: 8 | |
| BOS Hellickson (RHP) P: 3 | BOS Price (LHP) P: 6 | BOS Cobb (RHP) P: 7 | @MIN Archer (RHP) P: 8 | @MIN Moore (LHP) P: 9 | @MIN Hellickson (RHP) P: 5 | |
| PIT Perez (LHP) P: 6 | PIT Darvish (RHP) P: 9 | PIT Garza (RHP) P: 7 | OAK Holland (LHP) P: 6 | OAK TBD P: 1 | OAK Perez (LHP) P: 5 | |
| LAA Redmond (RHP) P: 2 | LAA Buehrle (LHP) P: 7 | LAA Dickey (RHP) P: 6 | BAL Happ (LHP) P: 4 | BAL Rogers (RHP) P: 4 | BAL Redmond (RHP) P: 2 | |
| @LAD Delgado (RHP) P: 7 | @LAD Cahill (RHP) P: 5 | @LAD Corbin (LHP) P: 7 | COL McCarthy (RHP) P: 4 | COL Miley (LHP) P: 4 | COL Delgado (RHP) P: 6 | |
| @MIA Medlen (RHP) P: 9 | @MIA Teheran (RHP) P: 9 | @MIA Minor (LHP) P: 10 | @MIA Wood (LHP) P: 8 | SD Maholm (LHP) P: 6 | SD Medlen (RHP) P: 8 | SD Teheran (RHP) P: 8 |
| @CIN Wood (LHP) P: 7 | @CIN Jackson (RHP) P: 3 | @CIN Samardzija (RHP) P: 5 | @PIT Rusin (LHP) P: 5 | @PIT Arrieta (RHP) P: 7 | @PIT Baker (RHP) P: 5 | @PIT Wood (LHP) P: 8 |
| CHC Arroyo (RHP) P: 6 | CHC Cingrani (LHP) P: 9 | CHC Leake (RHP) P: 5 | @MIL Latos (RHP) P: 9 | @MIL Bailey (RHP) P: 10 | @MIL Arroyo (RHP) P: 5 | |
| @SF Chacin (RHP) P: 7 | @SF DeLaRosa (LHP) P: 6 | @SF Nicasio (RHP) P: 4 | @ARI Chatwood (RHP) P: 4 | @ARI Bettis (RHP) P: 1 | @ARI Chacin (RHP) P: 7 | |
| ARI Nolasco (RHP) P: 10 | ARI Ryu (LHP) P: 8 | ARI Capuano (LHP) P: 4 | SF Greinke (RHP) P: 10 | SF Kershaw (LHP) P: 10 | SF Nolasco (RHP) P: 10 | SF Ryu (LHP) P: 8 |
| ATL Alvarez (RHP) P: 7 | ATL Koehler (RHP) P: 3 | ATL Flynn (LHP) P: 1 | ATL Fernandez (RHP) P: 10 | @NYM Eovaldi (RHP) P: 7 | @NYM-2 Turner (RHP) P: 7 Alvarez (RHP) P: 7 | @NYM Koehler (RHP) P: 3 |
| @STL Estrada (RHP) P: 8 | @STL Peralta (RHP) P: 6 | @STL Lohse (RHP) P: 6 | CIN Hellweg (RHP) P: 2 | CIN Gallardo (RHP) P: 7 | CIN Estrada (RHP) P: 7 | |
| WSH Torres (RHP) P: 7 | WSH Gee (RHP) P: 7 | WSH Wheeler (RHP) P: 9 | WSH Niese (LHP) P: 8 | MIA Matsuzaka (RHP) P: 1 | MIA-2 Torres (RHP) P: 8 TBD P: 1 | MIA Gee (RHP) P: 9 |
| SD Martin (RHP) P: 1 | SD Halladay (RHP) P: 3 | SD Lee (LHP) P: 9 | @WSH Kendrick (RHP) P: 4 | @WSH Hamels (LHP) P: 7 | @WSH Martin (RHP) P: 1 | |
| @TEX Cole (RHP) P: 6 | @TEX Liriano (LHP) P: 8 | @TEX Burnett (RHP) P: 8 | CHC Locke (LHP) P: 5 | CHC Morton (RHP) P: 9 | CHC Cole (RHP) P: 8 | CHC Liriano (LHP) P: 10 |
| MIL Miller (RHP) P: 7 | MIL Lynn (RHP) P: 4 | MIL Kelly (RHP) P: 8 | SEA Wainwrght (RHP) P: 9 | SEA Wacha (RHP) P: 7 | SEA Miller (RHP) P: 8 | |
| @PHI Cashner (RHP) P: 9 | @PHI Erlin (LHP) P: 7 | @PHI Smith (RHP) P: 1 | @ATL Ross (RHP) P: 7 | @ATL Kennedy (RHP) P: 5 | @ATL Cashner (RHP) P: 8 | |
| COL Lincecum (RHP) P: 4 | COL Vogelsong (RHP) P: 4 | COL Petit (RHP) P: 5 | @LAD Cain (RHP) P: 7 | @LAD Bumgarner (LHP) P: 9 | @LAD Lincecum (RHP) P: 5 | @LAD Vogelsong (RHP) P: 5 |
| @NYM Gonzalez (LHP) P: 8 | @NYM Zimmrmnn (RHP) P: 8 | @NYM Haren (RHP) P: 4 | @NYM Roark (RHP) P: 6 | PHI Strasburg (RHP) P: 10 | PHI Gonzalez (LHP) P: 9 | PHI Zimmrmnn (RHP) P: 9 |
| P: The starting pitcher's matchup rating, which accounts for past history (three years' worth as well as past 21 days), opponent and ballpark. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. |
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[h=3]Pitching scuttlebutt[/h]
• Just as they did last September, the Baltimore Orioles are announcing their starters on a day-by-day basis, meaning what's listed above is a projection, assuming Chris Tillman returns to their rotation on Monday in the place of the demoted Zach Britton. Britton and Jason Hammel are candidates to make spot starts and/or bump any of the above five to the bullpen at any time.
• Clay Buchholz (shoulder), who threw 3 2/3 innings and 71 pitches in a rehabilitation start for Triple-A Pawtucket on Sept. 5, is scheduled to return to the Boston Red Sox rotation Tuesday. It is unclear whether the team will go with six starters or bump someone, Ryan Dempster and Felix Doubront the most obvious candidates. In the latter case, Buchholz would be a two-start pitcher.
• The Chicago White Sox are currently using a six-man rotation, with no hint of reverting to five for the week.
• Justin Masterson (oblique) was scheduled to miss at least one start -- that'd have come Sept. 8 -- and it's unclear whether he'll be ready to rejoin the Cleveland Indians' rotation this week.
• With the Seattle Mariners pushing back Felix Hernandez's (back) next start to Wednesday, it's highly likely they'll use a six-man rotation again this week.
• The Texas Rangers haven't yet announced a starter for Sept. 8, with Travis Blackley and Nick Tepesch the leading candidates, and that spot comes up again on Saturday. The team also has the option of skipping that spot thanks to Thursday's off day, and that's projected above because it's likely the team would prefer a Derek Holland-Martin Perez-Yu Darvish trio for that key weekend series against Oakland.
• The Atlanta Braves, in an attempt to keep his innings down, pushed Julio Teheran's next start back to Tuesday. It's unclear whether they'll do so again with his following start on Sunday, but with the team up 14 games in the division, Kameron Loe or another pitcher could always make an unannounced spot start.
• Scott Baker (Tommy John surgery) is expected to rejoin the Chicago Cubs' rotation on Sept. 8, but it is unclear whether he's replacing someone or the team is going to six starters. Jake Arrieta or Chris Rusin could be bumped, or the struggling Jeff Samardzija could be shut down early, but for now it's smartest to expect a six-man rotation for the coming week.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers scratched Hyun-Jin Ryu (back) from his scheduled Sept. 6 start, and are likely to use him on either Tuesday or Wednesday. If he pitches Wednesday, Chris Capuano would probably get two starts (Tuesday-Sunday).
• The Miami Marlins pushed Jose Fernandez's most recent start back to Sept. 6, and it's possible that he'll make only one more start this season after that. With an extra game on the schedule, the team will need six starters anyway; what's projected above seems like a fairly likely scenario.
• The Milwaukee Brewers have made no announcements regarding their rotation beyond Sept. 8, though manager Ron Roenicke told the team's official website that he has a rough outline of it (he didn't reveal it). What's listed above is entirely a projection, but Tyler Thornburg could also factor into their plans.
• With a doubleheader Friday, the New York Mets will need a sixth/spot starter this week.
[h=3]Tristan's Week 23 pitcher rankings: Top 75[/h]
1. Max Scherzer (DET) -- Mon-@CWS (Sale), Sun-KC (Santana)
2. Clayton Kershaw (LAD) -- Fri-SF (Bumgarner)
3. Zack Greinke (LAD) -- Thu-SF (Cain)
4. Chris Sale (CWS) -- Mon-DET (Scherzer), Sun-CLE (McAllister)
5. Stephen Strasburg (WSH) -- Fri-PHI (Kendrick)
6. Jarrod Parker (OAK) -- Tue-@MIN (Hendriks), Sun-@TEX (Perez)
7. Yu Darvish (TEX) -- Tue-PIT (Liriano)
8. Homer Bailey (CIN) -- Sat-@MIL (Gallardo)
9. Mat Latos (CIN) -- Fri-@MIL (Hellweg)
10. Jered Weaver (LAA) -- Mon-@MIN (Hernandez), Sat-@HOU (Oberholtzer)
11. Jose Fernandez (MIA) -- Thu-ATL (Wood)
12. Cole Hamels (PHI) -- Sat-@WSH (Gonzalez)
13. Hyun-Jin Ryu (LAD) -- Tue-ARI (Cahill), Sun-SF (Vogelsong)
14. Ricky Nolasco (LAD) -- Mon-ARI (Delgado), Sat-SF (Lincecum)
15. Anibal Sanchez (DET) -- Wed-@CWS (Quintana)
16. Cliff Lee (PHI) -- Thu-SD (Smith)
17. Kris Medlen (ATL) -- Mon-@MIA (Alvarez), Sat-SD (Kennedy)
18. Justin Verlander (DET) -- Fri-KC (Duffy)
19. Julio Teheran (ATL) -- Tue-@MIA (Koehler), Sun-SD (Cashner)
20. James Shields (KC) -- Wed-@CLE (Kazmir)
21. Gio Gonzalez (WSH) -- Mon-@NYM (Torres), Sat-PHI (Hamels)
22. Madison Bumgarner (SF) -- Fri-@LAD (Kershaw)
23. Jordan Zimmermann (WSH) -- Tue-@NYM (Gee), Sun-PHI (Martin)
24. Jake Peavy (BOS) -- Thu-@TB (Cobb)
25. Felix Hernandez (SEA) -- Wed-HOU (Peacock)
26. Francisco Liriano (PIT) -- Tue-@TEX (Darvish), Sun-CHC (Wood)
27. David Price (TB) -- Wed-BOS (Dempster)
28. Adam Wainwright (STL) -- Fri-SEA (Iwakuma)
29. Travis Wood (CHC) -- Mon-@CIN (Arroyo), Sun-@PIT (Liriano)
30. Jon Lester (BOS) -- Sun-NYY (Nova)
31. Jhoulys Chacin (COL) -- Mon-@SF (Lincecum), Sun-@ARI (Delgado)
32. Jonathon Niese (NYM) -- Thu-WSH (Roark)
33. Mike Minor (ATL) -- Wed-@MIA (Flynn)
34. Chris Tillman (BAL) -- Mon-NYY (Sabathia), Sat-@TOR (Rogers)
35. Dillon Gee (NYM) -- Tue-WSH (Zimmermann), Sun-MIA (Koehler)
36. Sonny Gray (OAK) -- Wed-@MIN (Pelfrey)
37. Zack Wheeler (NYM) -- Wed-WSH (Haren)
38. Matt Garza (TEX) -- Wed-PIT (Burnett)
39. A.J. Burnett (PIT) -- Wed-@TEX (Garza)
40. Hisashi Iwakuma (SEA) -- Fri-@STL (Wainwright)
41. Tony Cingrani (CIN) -- Tue-CHC (Jackson)
42. Shelby Miller (STL) -- Tue-MIL (Estrada), Sun-SEA (Ramirez)
43. John Lackey (BOS) -- Sat-NYY (Sabathia)
44. Alex Cobb (TB) -- Thu-BOS (Peavy)
45. Ubaldo Jimenez (CLE) -- Mon-KC (Santana), Sat-@CWS (Rienzo)
46. Matt Cain (SF) -- Thu-@LAD (Greinke)
47. Ivan Nova (NYY) -- Tue-@BAL (Gonzalez), Sun-@BOS (Lester)
48. Randall Delgado (ARI) -- Mon-@LAD (Nolasco), Sun-COL (Chacin)
49. Yovani Gallardo (MIL) -- Sat-CIN (Bailey)
50. Matt Moore (TB) -- Sat-@MIN (Hernandez)
51. Martin Perez (TEX) -- Mon-PIT (Cole), Sun-OAK (Parker)
52. Michael Wacha (STL) -- Sat-SEA (Paxton)
53. Derek Holland (TEX) -- Fri-OAK (Straily)
54. Patrick Corbin (ARI) -- Wed-@LAD (Capuano)
55. Andrew Cashner (SD) -- Tue-@PHI (Martin), Sun-@ATL (Teheran)
56. Gerrit Cole (PIT) -- Mon-@TEX (Perez), Sat-CHC (Baker)
57. Alex Wood (ATL) -- Thu-@MIA (Fernandez)
58. R.A. Dickey (TOR) -- Thu-LAA (Richards)
59. Mark Buehrle (TOR) -- Wed-LAA (Wilson)
60. C.J. Wilson (LAA) -- Wed-@TOR (Buehrle)
61. Chris Archer (TB) -- Fri-@MIN (Albers)
62. Danny Salazar (CLE) -- Fri-@CWS (Santiago)
63. Doug Fister (DET) -- Sat-KC (Chen)
64. Bronson Arroyo (CIN) -- Mon-CHC (Wood), Sun-@MIL (Estrada)
65. Andy Pettitte (NYY) -- Wed-@BAL (Feldman)
66. Carlos Torres (NYM) -- Mon-WSH (Gonzalez), Sat-MIA, Gm. 1 (Turner)
67. Charlie Morton (PIT) -- Fri-CHC (Arrieta)
68. Tim Lincecum (SF) -- Mon-COL (Chacin), Sat-@LAD (Nolasco)
69. Ryan Vogelsong (SF) -- Tue-COL (De La Rosa), Sun-@LAD (Ryu)
70. Taijuan Walker (SEA) -- Mon-HOU (Cosart)
71. Hiroki Kuroda (NYY) -- Fri-@BOS (Doubront)
72. Dan Haren (WSH) -- Wed-@NYM (Wheeler)
73. Paul Maholm (ATL) -- Fri-SD (Ross)
74. Marco Estrada (MIL) -- Tue-@STL (Miller), Sun-CIN (Arroyo)
75. A.J. Griffin (OAK) -- Thu-@MIN (Correia)
Two-start options for AL-/NL-only leagues:
Henderson Alvarez (MIA) -- Mon-ATL (Medlen), Sat-@NYM, Gm. 2 (TBD)
Zach McAllister (CLE) -- Tue-KC (Guthrie), Sun-@CWS (Sale)
CC Sabathia (NYY) -- Mon-@BAL (Tillman), Sat-@BOS (Lackey)
Ervin Santana (KC) -- Mon-@CLE (Jimenez), Sun-@DET (Scherzer)
Jerome Williams (LAA) -- Tue-@TOR (Redmond), Sun-@HOU (Clemens)
No-thank-yous, among two-start pitchers:
Miguel Gonzalez (BAL) -- Tue-NYY (Nova), Sun-@TOR (Redmond)
Jeremy Hellickson (TB) -- Tue-BOS (Buchholz), Sun-@MIN (Hendriks)
Liam Hendriks (MIN) -- Tue-OAK (Parker), Sun-TB (Hellickson)
Pedro Hernandez (MIN) -- Mon-LAA (Weaver), Sat-TB (Moore)
Tom Koehler (MIA) -- Tue-ATL (Teheran), Sun-@NYM (Gee)
Ethan Martin (PHI) -- Tue-SD (Cashner), Sun-@WSH (Zimmermann)
Todd Redmond (TOR) -- Tue-LAA (Williams), Sun-BAL (Gonzalez)
[h=3]Pitching advantages[/h]
• We're probably about to witness first-year fantasy sensation and probable National League Rookie of the Year Jose Fernandez's final start of 2013, as all indications are that the Miami Marlins plan to cap him at 170 innings pitched. He had 158 2/3 innings entering his Sept. 6 turn -- that his probable next-to-last assignment -- and it makes a lot of scheduling sense for them to pitch him on either Wednesday or Thursday, the final games of their seven-game home stand before a 11-game road trip. Fernandez has 10 quality starts, a 1.58 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 31.6 percent strikeout rate (that going by percentage of total batters faced) in 11 starts since July 1, and he tossed six innings of two-run, three-hit, eight-K baseball against the Atlanta Braves on Aug. 30. Keep him in there, then prepare to cut him in all redraft leagues.
• The New York Mets, who will in all likelihood have been eliminated from NL East contention by week's start, have quite a set of pitching matchups in Week 23. They play eight games, tied with the Miami Marlins for the most in the majors, all at Citi Field, where they have a 3.53 ERA and 1.24 WHIP as a team (compared to 4.02 and 1.35 on the road). As you'll see among the "Streamer's Delight" picks below, two-start pitcher Dillon Gee, available in 83.9 percent of ESPN leagues, warrants a pickup in any format for the week. But every member of the Mets' rotation is available in a significant percentage of ESPN leagues -- Zack Wheeler's 74.1 percent ownership is tops among their current starting five -- and that means streaming opportunities. Jonathon Niese, Thursday's starter against the Washington Nationals, might be the standout. After all, the Nationals have the majors' fourth-worst wOBA (weighted on-base average) against left-handed pitchers this season (.289).
• At least on the pitching side, the Cleveland Indians' matchups suit them well in their quest to fight back into either the AL Central or wild-card races. The opposing Kansas City Royals (18th, .309) and Chicago White Sox (25th, .298) rank among the majors' bottom half in wOBA since the All-Star break, and all five current Indians starters -- assuming that Justin Masterson (owned in 83.4 percent of ESPN leagues) doesn't pitch this week -- remain available in more than 75 percent of leagues. Two-start pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez (23.5 percent owned) is the intriguing play of the bunch. He's riding a streak of three consecutive quality starts, two of which were 10-strikeout efforts, and during those games he experienced a marked increase in fastball velocity, averaging 92.9 mph with it compared to 91.3 during his first 24 starts of the season.
• Here are this week's Streamer's Delight picks -- players need to be available in at least 75 percent of ESPN leagues as of our publishing time (Fridays):
1. Dillon Gee (MIA, Sunday): He has a 65.8 quality start percentage, 3.16 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 40 career games at Citi Field, and the Miami Marlins have the majors' worst wOBA both since the All-Star break (.274) and for the season (.276).
2. Dillon Gee (WSH, Tuesday): Oh, and Gee is 6-for-11 in quality starts with a 2.80 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in his career against the Washington Nationals.
3. Randall Delgado (COL, Sunday): He's 7-for-9 in quality starts with a 3.36 ERA and 1.07 WHIP at home this season, and the Colorado Rockies' .296 wOBA and 3.45 runs-per-game average on the road both rank among the majors' 10 worst.
4. Michael Wacha (SEA, Saturday): Hope he leans on his changeup (.210 wOBA allowed, 19 of his 40 K's), because the Seattle Mariners have the majors' second-worst wOBA (.251) and fourth-highest K rate (24.6 percent) against that pitch.
5. Taijuan Walker (HOU, Monday): He'll probably be on a pitch count, but you can't ask a more favorable matchup for K's than the Houston Astros.
[h=3]Hitting ratings[/h]
The chart below lists each of the 30 teams' total number of scheduled games, home games and games versus right- and left-handed pitchers, and provides a matchup rating for the week's games in terms of overall offense, offense for left- and right-handed hitters and base stealing. Matchup ratings for each individual game are listed under the corresponding date.
<STYLE type=text/css>.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</STYLE>
| <CENTER>Team</CENTER> | <CENTER>Games</CENTER> | <CENTER>Overall Rating</CENTER> | <CENTER>Mon 9/9</CENTER> | <CENTER>Tue 9/10</CENTER> | <CENTER>Wed 9/11</CENTER> | <CENTER>Thu 9/12</CENTER> | <CENTER>Fri 9/13</CENTER> | <CENTER>Sat 9/14</CENTER> | <CENTER>Sun 9/15</CENTER> |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
| 7 total 4 home 4 vs. L 3 vs. R | H: 8 L: 6 R: 8 S: 6 | NYY H: 6 L: 3 R: 7 S: 4 | NYY H: 4 L: 5 R: 4 S: 4 | NYY H: 5 L: 1 R: 6 S: 4 | NYY H: 2 L: 3 R: 3 S: 4 | @TOR H: 6 L: 9 R: 5 S: 6 | @TOR H: 6 L: 8 R: 4 S: 5 | @TOR H: 9 L: 6 R: 10 S: 8 |
|
| 6 total 3 home 2 vs. L 4 vs. R | H: 5 L: 4 R: 5 S: 6 | @TB H: 6 L: 5 R: 7 S: 7 | @TB H: 3 L: 1 R: 5 S: 7 | @TB H: 2 L: 5 R: 1 S: 8 | NYY H: 7 L: 8 R: 6 S: 4 | NYY H: 6 L: 3 R: 7 S: 4 | NYY H: 5 L: 5 R: 4 S: 4 | |
|
| 7 total 7 home 0 vs. L 7 vs. R | H: 4 L: 8 R: 4 S: 8 | DET H: 1 L: 4 R: 1 S: 7 | DET H: 8 L: 9 R: 4 S: 7 | DET H: 2 L: 4 R: 2 S: 8 | CLE H: 5 L: 6 R: 5 S: 5 | CLE H: 2 L: 7 R: 1 S: 4 | CLE H: 4 L: 3 R: 6 S: 5 | CLE H: 6 L: 5 R: 7 S: 5 |
|
| 7 total 3 home 3 vs. L 4 vs. R | H: 8 L: 7 R: 7 S: 4 | KC H: 5 L: 6 R: 4 S: 5 | KC H: 6 L: 9 R: 2 S: 4 | KC H: 1 L: 1 R: 4 S: 4 | @CWS H: 7 L: 8 R: 6 S: 3 | @CWS H: 6 L: 3 R: 7 S: 4 | @CWS H: 10 L: 8 R: 9 S: 4 | @CWS H: 3 L: 1 R: 5 S: 4 |
|
| 6 total 3 home 4 vs. L 2 vs. R | H: 6 L: 6 R: 4 S: 3 | @CWS H: 3 L: 1 R: 5 S: 4 | @CWS H: 9 L: 10 R: 1 S: 3 | @CWS H: 5 L: 5 R: 5 S: 3 | KC H: 3 L: 4 R: 3 S: 4 | KC H: 6 L: 7 R: 6 S: 4 | KC H: 5 L: 6 R: 4 S: 5 | |
|
| 6 total 3 home 2 vs. L 4 vs. R | H: 4 L: 3 R: 4 S: 5 | @SEA H: 1 L: 1 R: 1 S: 1 | @SEA H: 10 L: 2 R: 10 S: 2 | @SEA H: 4 L: 5 R: 3 S: 3 | LAA H: 6 L: 7 R: 6 S: 8 | LAA H: 3 L: 4 R: 3 S: 8 | LAA H: 5 L: 7 R: 3 S: 8 | |
|
| 6 total 0 home 1 vs. L 5 vs. R | H: 3 L: 1 R: 7 S: 6 | @CLE H: 3 L: 2 R: 5 S: 5 | @CLE H: 5 L: 4 R: 7 S: 5 | @CLE H: 7 L: 1 R: 9 S: 4 | @DET H: 4 L: 3 R: 6 S: 7 | @DET H: 5 L: 4 R: 7 S: 6 | @DET H: 1 L: 4 R: 1 S: 7 | |
|
| 7 total 0 home 4 vs. L 3 vs. R | H: 10 L: 8 R: 10 S: 8 | @MIN H: 7 L: 2 R: 10 S: 4 | @TOR H: 9 L: 6 R: 10 S: 8 | @TOR H: 3 L: 4 R: 4 S: 5 | @TOR H: 5 L: 6 R: 4 S: 6 | @HOU H: 7 L: 6 R: 7 S: 7 | @HOU H: 3 L: 9 R: 1 S: 4 | @HOU H: 10 L: 7 R: 10 S: 7 |
|
| 7 total 7 home 1 vs. L 6 vs. R | H: 1 L: 4 R: 3 S: 7 | LAA H: 2 L: 3 R: 3 S: 8 | OAK H: 1 L: 3 R: 1 S: 5 | OAK H: 1 L: 3 R: 1 S: 2 | OAK H: 5 L: 5 R: 6 S: 3 | TB H: 2 L: 6 R: 1 S: 8 | TB H: 3 L: 2 R: 4 S: 7 | TB H: 7 L: 6 R: 7 S: 7 |
|
| 7 total 0 home 3 vs. L 4 vs. R | H: 7 L: 3 R: 8 S: 5 | @BAL H: 4 L: 5 R: 4 S: 2 | @BAL H: 6 L: 6 R: 5 S: 1 | @BAL H: 3 L: 5 R: 2 S: 4 | @BAL H: 9 L: 2 R: 10 S: 2 | @BOS H: 5 L: 2 R: 7 S: 8 | @BOS H: 4 L: 3 R: 6 S: 9 | @BOS H: 4 L: 2 R: 5 S: 7 |
|
| 6 total 0 home 2 vs. L 3 vs. R | H: 7 L: 8 R: 6 S: 6 | @MIN H: 9 L: 10 R: 6 S: 6 | @MIN H: 4 L: 4 R: 6 S: 6 | @MIN H: 6 L: 6 R: 5 S: 5 | @TEX H: 5 L: 4 R: 6 S: 6 | @TEX H: 6 L: 6 R: 6 S: 8 | @TEX H: 6 L: 10 R: 4 S: 5 | |
|
| 6 total 3 home 0 vs. L 6 vs. R | H: 2 L: 2 R: 5 S: 3 | HOU H: 5 L: 1 R: 10 S: 7 | HOU H: 6 L: 5 R: 7 S: 6 | HOU H: 5 L: 5 R: 4 S: 8 | @STL H: 3 L: 4 R: 2 S: 1 | @STL H: 1 L: 1 R: 2 S: 1 | @STL H: 4 L: 6 R: 3 S: 1 | |
|
| 6 total 3 home 2 vs. L 4 vs. R | H: 6 L: 5 R: 6 S: 7 | BOS H: 2 L: 3 R: 3 S: 7 | BOS H: 7 L: 4 R: 9 S: 8 | BOS H: 2 L: 4 R: 1 S: 7 | @MIN H: 7 L: 9 R: 6 S: 6 | @MIN H: 7 L: 2 R: 10 S: 4 | @MIN H: 9 L: 10 R: 6 S: 6 | |
|
| 6 total 6 home 1 vs. L 5 vs. R | H: 3 L: 4 R: 4 S: 4 | PIT H: 5 L: 5 R: 6 S: 4 | PIT H: 3 L: 1 R: 6 S: 4 | PIT H: 2 L: 5 R: 1 S: 5 | OAK H: 8 L: 8 R: 7 S: 5 | OAK H: 5 L: 6 R: 4 S: 4 | OAK H: 2 L: 4 R: 2 S: 5 | |
|
| 6 total 6 home 1 vs. L 5 vs. R | H: 6 L: 6 R: 4 S: 5 | LAA H: 6 L: 7 R: 3 S: 8 | LAA H: 4 L: 1 R: 7 S: 8 | LAA H: 5 L: 7 R: 3 S: 8 | BAL H: 7 L: 8 R: 3 S: 3 | BAL H: 4 L: 5 R: 4 S: 2 | BAL H: 6 L: 6 R: 5 S: 1 | |
|
| 6 total 3 home 2 vs. L 4 vs. R | H: 6 L: 5 R: 6 S: 1 | @LAD H: 1 L: 2 R: 1 S: 1 | @LAD H: 3 L: 4 R: 3 S: 1 | @LAD H: 7 L: 1 R: 9 S: 1 | COL H: 7 L: 8 R: 6 S: 5 | COL H: 10 L: 10 R: 9 S: 2 | COL H: 4 L: 6 R: 4 S: 4 | |
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| 7 total 3 home 1 vs. L 6 vs. R | H: 8 L: 7 R: 6 S: 5 | @MIA H: 4 L: 8 R: 1 S: 4 | @MIA H: 8 L: 5 R: 10 S: 4 | @MIA H: 10 L: 5 R: 10 S: 4 | @MIA H: 1 L: 2 R: 1 S: 4 | SD H: 4 L: 6 R: 3 S: 6 | SD H: 6 L: 6 R: 6 S: 5 | SD H: 3 L: 6 R: 1 S: 6 |
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| 7 total 0 home 3 vs. L 4 vs. R | H: 5 L: 6 R: 6 S: 4 | @CIN H: 6 L: 7 R: 4 S: 4 | @CIN H: 3 L: 2 R: 5 S: 4 | @CIN H: 7 L: 6 R: 8 S: 4 | @PIT H: 7 L: 8 R: 6 S: 4 | @PIT H: 3 L: 6 R: 1 S: 5 | @PIT H: 3 L: 3 R: 4 S: 4 | @PIT H: 2 L: 1 R: 4 S: 4 |
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| 6 total 3 home 1 vs. L 5 vs. R | H: 6 L: 7 R: 4 S: 7 | CHC H: 4 L: 3 R: 4 S: 6 | CHC H: 8 L: 7 R: 7 S: 7 | CHC H: 6 L: 6 R: 5 S: 7 | @MIL H: 8 L: 10 R: 3 S: 6 | @MIL H: 4 L: 4 R: 4 S: 6 | @MIL H: 4 L: 5 R: 3 S: 7 | |
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| 6 total 0 home 1 vs. L 5 vs. R | H: 7 L: 3 R: 8 S: 3 | @SF H: 6 L: 4 R: 7 S: 7 | @SF H: 6 L: 4 R: 7 S: 6 | @SF H: 5 L: 4 R: 6 S: 6 | @ARI H: 6 L: 6 R: 6 S: 1 | @ARI H: 7 L: 4 R: 8 S: 1 | @ARI H: 4 L: 4 R: 5 S: 1 | |
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| 7 total 7 home 2 vs. L 5 vs. R | H: 5 L: 3 R: 7 S: 5 | ARI H: 3 L: 4 R: 4 S: 1 | ARI H: 6 L: 6 R: 5 S: 2 | ARI H: 4 L: 1 R: 6 S: 1 | SF H: 3 L: 4 R: 4 S: 7 | SF H: 2 L: 1 R: 3 S: 6 | SF H: 6 L: 4 R: 7 S: 7 | SF H: 6 L: 4 R: 7 S: 6 |
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| 8 total 4 home 2 vs. L 5 vs. R | H: 8 L: 10 R: 8 S: 10 | ATL H: 4 L: 6 R: 3 S: 7 | ATL H: 4 L: 9 R: 1 S: 7 | ATL H: 2 L: 2 R: 4 S: 6 | ATL H: 5 L: 5 R: 5 S: 6 | @NYM H: 10 L: 10 R: 10 S: 7 | @NYM-2 H: 3 L: 1 R: 6 S: 5 | @NYM H: 4 L: 6 R: 2 S: 5 |
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| 6 total 3 home 0 vs. L 6 vs. R | H: 1 L: 6 R: 1 S: 2 | @STL H: 4 L: 6 R: 3 S: 1 | @STL H: 7 L: 8 R: 4 S: 1 | @STL H: 3 L: 4 R: 3 S: 1 | CIN H: 1 L: 4 R: 1 S: 5 | CIN H: 1 L: 4 R: 1 S: 4 | CIN H: 6 L: 7 R: 4 S: 4 | |
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| 8 total 8 home 1 vs. L 7 vs. R | H: 8 L: 10 R: 6 S: 7 | WSH H: 3 L: 8 R: 3 S: 5 | WSH H: 4 L: 5 R: 3 S: 4 | WSH H: 7 L: 6 R: 8 S: 5 | WSH H: 1 L: 1 R: 1 S: 5 | MIA H: 5 L: 8 R: 2 S: 4 | MIA-2 H: 5 L: 4 R: 6 S: 5 | MIA H: 8 L: 5 R: 10 S: 4 |
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| 6 total 3 home 2 vs. L 4 vs. R | H: 3 L: 7 R: 3 S: 6 | SD H: 3 L: 6 R: 1 S: 6 | SD H: 5 L: 4 R: 6 S: 6 | SD H: 10 L: 10 R: 9 S: 6 | @WSH H: 1 L: 4 R: 1 S: 5 | @WSH H: 3 L: 7 R: 3 S: 5 | @WSH H: 4 L: 5 R: 3 S: 4 | |
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| 7 total 4 home 3 vs. L 4 vs. R | H: 5 L: 5 R: 5 S: 8 | @TEX H: 6 L: 10 R: 4 S: 5 | @TEX H: 3 L: 5 R: 1 S: 7 | @TEX H: 5 L: 6 R: 4 S: 6 | CHC H: 6 L: 1 R: 8 S: 6 | CHC H: 4 L: 3 R: 6 S: 7 | CHC H: 4 L: 5 R: 3 S: 5 | CHC H: 3 L: 3 R: 4 S: 6 |
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| 6 total 6 home 1 vs. L 5 vs. R | H: 3 L: 4 R: 4 S: 4 | MIL H: 3 L: 5 R: 3 S: 7 | MIL H: 5 L: 5 R: 5 S: 6 | MIL H: 5 L: 5 R: 5 S: 6 | SEA H: 2 L: 2 R: 4 S: 2 | SEA H: 5 L: 5 R: 5 S: 3 | SEA H: 3 L: 5 R: 2 S: 3 | |
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| 6 total 0 home 2 vs. L 4 vs. R | H: 7 L: 6 R: 5 S: 7 | @PHI H: 10 L: 8 R: 10 S: 6 | @PHI H: 8 L: 10 R: 3 S: 6 | @PHI H: 3 L: 1 R: 4 S: 5 | @ATL H: 5 L: 1 R: 7 S: 6 | @ATL H: 4 L: 5 R: 3 S: 7 | @ATL H: 4 L: 9 R: 1 S: 7 | |
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| 7 total 3 home 3 vs. L 4 vs. R | H: 1 L: 1 R: 4 S: 2 | COL H: 3 L: 5 R: 3 S: 4 | COL H: 5 L: 1 R: 7 S: 5 | COL H: 7 L: 4 R: 9 S: 4 | @LAD H: 1 L: 3 R: 1 S: 1 | @LAD H: 1 L: 1 R: 1 S: 1 | @LAD H: 1 L: 2 R: 1 S: 1 | @LAD H: 3 L: 4 R: 3 S: 1 |
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| 7 total 3 home 2 vs. L 5 vs. R | H: 5 L: 5 R: 7 S: 7 | @NYM H: 3 L: 1 R: 6 S: 5 | @NYM H: 4 L: 6 R: 2 S: 5 | @NYM H: 2 L: 4 R: 2 S: 6 | @NYM H: 3 L: 3 R: 4 S: 5 | PHI H: 6 L: 3 R: 8 S: 5 | PHI H: 3 L: 4 R: 3 S: 6 | PHI H: 10 L: 8 R: 10 S: 6 |
| Some of the data used to generate this chart is derived from Baseball Musings' Day-by-day database. H: Hitters' matchup rating, which accounts for the opposing starting pitcher's past history (three years' worth as well as past 21 days) as well as ballpark factors. L: Hitters' matchup rating accounting only for left-handed hitters. R: Hitters' matchup rating accounting for only right-handed hitters. S: Base stealing matchup rating, which accounts for the opponent's catchers' ability to gun down opposing base stealers. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. |
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[h=3]Hitting advantages[/h]
• Here are this week's "volume plays" -- defined as the teams that play the most home games, or games against left- or right-handed starters:
Home games: New York Mets 8, Chicago White Sox 7, Minnesota Twins 7, Los Angeles Dodgers 7
Versus LH: Baltimore Orioles 4, Detroit Tigers 4, Los Angeles Angels 4
Versus RH: Chicago White Sox 7, New York Mets 7, Minnesota Twins 6, Seattle Mariners 6, Atlanta Braves 6, Milwaukee Brewers 6
• Consider this a "last gasp" kind of week for Los Angeles Angels hitters, who will play 10 of their final 13 games of the season against hungry, motivated Oakland Athletics and Texas Rangers pitchers in the two weeks following this. Though this team has a wOBA 15 points higher against right-handed pitchers (.326) than left-handers (.311), all that means is that this is a team that does more scraping lineups together against lefties than rolls out many fantasy studs. That's a plus for those seeking fill-ins, as Erick Aybar (owned in 77.8 percent of ESPN leagues), Peter Bourjos (2.3 percent), Grant Green (0.2), Hank Conger (0.1) and Luis Jimenez (0.0) are all right-handed (or switch-hitting) hitters who are widely available.
Green stands out in particular, as he has started 24 of the team's past 28 games at second base, batting .291 with a .358 on-base percentage during that span.
• Two Cincinnati Reds hitters remain available in a significant number of ESPN leagues and should benefit from their hitting-friendly set of matchups this week: Todd Frazier (owned in 54.9 percent) and Ryan Ludwick (8.6 percent).
Frazier, who hit two home runs on Sept. 5, is a .276 hitter with a .553 slugging percentage, five home runs and 15 RBIs in his past 20 games. Ludwick, meanwhile, is a .321/.345/.482 hitter in his past 17 contests.
